Saturday, September 18, 2004

Is Blue Ray a Dead End?

Mark Cuban has thought-provoking things to say about the current efforts by the rival consumer electronics consortiums to get a high capacity successor to the DVD established as a standard. Do the ever-rapidly declining cost of hard drive storage per megabyte and the advent of broadband spell failure for such initiatives?

There's a great deal to Cuban's argument, but it seems premature to me to suggest that he's got it completely right; for one thing, at this moment broadband is hardly the choice of the majority even in countries like the UK and Ireland, let alone in poorer countries in the Third World, and not everyone can afford keychain devices and iPods. I think there will indeed turn out to be a market for a successor to the DVD, especially in the form of a burnable that can be used for backup storage, just not quite as large a market as the success of the CD and the DVD might have conditioned consumer electronics manufacturers to expect.

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